Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
